U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Joe Neguse
(D) Phil Weiser
(D) Jena Griswold
60%
60%
40%↓
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Alexis King
(D) Brian Mason
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
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(D) George Stern
(D) A. Gonzalez
(R) Sheri Davis
40%
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(R) Kevin Grantham
(D) Jerry DiTullio
60%
30%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(D) Joe Salazar
50%
40%
40%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
June 04, 2007 04:56 PM UTC
24 Comments
It’s the right thing to do, and we need him securing the majority in the state senate.
The roll-out was a flop, and leaking that poll memo only made it worse. The lesson here is not to think the DC consultants know best.
I hope Brandon focuses on being a unifying force in this race. The nominee needs to be in a strong position to challenge Musgrave. Unfortunately, it looks like certain agendas seem determined to undermine that.
Does anyone know if he raised any money?
I agree this is the right thing to do for the party. To go against Musgrave you need huge name recognition, and why spend $2 million in a primary only to be a weak challenger in the general election?
Brandon has a lot of potential, and I think he will go to Congress one day. This was the right thing to do, however.
…although Udall’s decision-making was much quicker.
to do the same. I don’t think she’ll be so quick to exit, but you never know.
One of Brandon’s problems was that his name recognition across the district is so low, and it’s probably much higher than Markey’s.
The only way Markey can raise her profile to the voting public is by attacking Angie Paccione.
any reason why you think Markey’s name ID is low? I would guess it would be fairly high among Dem primary voters given her position in Senator Salazar’s office. The politically active and politically connected Dems in CD4 most likely all know Betsey. I think she’s an interesting candidate because of the contacts she has within the party in CD4 and with the districts fundraisers.
I would be very surprised to see Democrats caring much about Salazar’s staff choices. A couple hundred insiders may know Markey, but to think that is representative of CD-4 Dems in general is myopic. Besides, a lot of party activists really (and I mean REALLY) dislike Ken Salazar, so playing the insider card cuts both ways.
I would guess her name rec is in the upper single digits. Of course, my dead Irish great grandfather has name recognition in the upper single digits. Brandon Shaffer had far more name rec, but then there was the problem of being confused with Bob Schaffer.
The Democratic activists who tend to volunteer–especially early–are much less likely to appreciate Markey’s tie to Salazar than would most Democrats. Angie will have more boots on the ground than Betsy could ever get, partially for that reason.
Now itr is Angie’s for sure. No one knows who Betsy Markey is. Did people see her early web site with endoresments of Gov Ritter, Sen Salazar. If her campaign is that inexperieced we should have a lot to poke at in the coming months. We have a professional like Angie and a novice like Betsy. Is there and question?
Putting Hillary Clinton, Bill Ritter and Ken Salazar on there as endorsements was way out of line.
Her TV ads were painful to watch.
A few things… I have been doing some research on both candidates and can clear a few things up. One: I talked to someone in BM’s camp for a story in the Boulder student paper and they gave me her press release. Looks like Sen. Salazar is not formally supporting her (yet) but had some kind things to say about her in a quote. Two: I don’t think the name recognition will be that much of a problem for her if she plays her cards right… it wasn’t for Ritter.
The local political people like Bacon, Reeves, Matsunaka and Kefals understand that people that can lead and organize good campaigns on the ground can win. They have endorsed Markey because they have seen her do that for the democratic party. Why do you think they have endorsed her over Angie?
That must have been a tough thing for them to do and I’m sure they didn’t take the decision lightly. They did it because they want someone that can win the seat.
So it’s true Markey has no real name recognition? I hope that ground game comes in handy while Musgrave spends $3 million defining her.
then they are backing the wrong horse.
Don’t get me wrong–Betsy is a fabulous woman. I like her very much. And outside of Fort Collins, I’d like it even more if you could find me ten voters that know who the hell she is.
Musgrave is reelected regardless of which dem is nominated.
“Say it ain’t so Joe…”
But it is. Barring some weird event or revelation in the future (and it would have to be monumental), MM gets reelected.
If Angie couldn’t take her out last time, and Matsunaka couldn’t the time before that, I don’t know what anyone thinks will be different this time.
I know, this is heresy to the true believers (and trust me as some one who wrote checks to Stan in both of his runs and to Angie as well I would like to beleive that ‘it could happen’ but I have been around this process for too long to let wishful thinking take the place of rational assessment) but the facts are the facts and political reality is political reality.
AP came awfully close and she let MM define her and set the debate for the entire last 2 months. Just imagine what could happen if the person running against MM did a good job campaigning…
I just wnated to add a PS to my previous posts. I know nothing of Markey and have no idea if she would be any good. All I know is AP seems very thin skinned and spent her time defending MM’s attacks (and doing so poorly) rather than attacking MM and laying out why people should vote for her.
So it may be AP is a better candidate than Markey. If so I figure we end up with MM for another 2 years.
You keep saying this, but I’ve never figured out why you automatically think Angie would run the same commercials again. Who does that?
Commercials are made by teams of consultants and strategists, and candidates are usually minor players in that process. That’s pretty common knowledge.
And marketing strategy usually is determined more by the campaign’s budget than by a candidate’s personality. That is also pretty obvious.
Sure Angie raised almost $2 million, but between Musgrave and the NRCC, just keeping her head above water was a huge job even with that amount, and the 527 decided that some sort of ineffective drinking water ad campaign would turn the tide.
Lastly, it’s a fact that vulnerable incumbents often need to be taken on a couple of times, after a candidate has built their name recognition and campaign ability over a cycle. Several of that kind of Democrat won in 2006. So bitching about old commercials doesn’t make a lot of sense.
It wasn’t one bad ad – everyone will do that sooner or later. It was lousy ad after lousy ad – both in the core message and how it was done.
Maybe if AP comes out and talks about how and why those ads were the wrong approach and that she will not be hiring anyone from her previous team, then maybe…
But everything seems to be lets do the same thing again and see if we get different results. That rarely works.
It wasn’t AP’s ads that lost the election for her. Everyone on the street mentions the bankruptcy and the fact that AP couldn’t explain it.
Going forward that same fact will exist and MM will mention it.
Add this to the fact that AP hasn’t had a job for a long time (other then taking money as a candidate) and she is extremely vulnerable to ads that position her just as the republicans want her. She is easy to shoot at.
It didn’t speak to the bancruptcy and it spent it’s time defending her without speaking to them. Worst possible response.
Either ignore the attack and attack MM on something else.
Or give a full and complete answer on the bancruptcy and then move on.
I do think she is too damaged now because of the last campaign – she is tied to that bancruptcy for awhile now.